The African Union's Critical Mission: Navigating Political Transitions in Africa
Tomorrow, the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) faces a crucial task as it convenes an informal consultation with several countries undergoing significant political transformations. This meeting, the fourth of its kind since the PSC's innovative working method was introduced, aims to address the progress and challenges of these nations' transitions.
A Growing List of Countries in Transition
Since the last consultation in March 2025, two notable events have unfolded. First, military coups in Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar have expanded the list of countries in transition to seven. Second, the AU's decision to lift Gabon's suspension, despite non-compliance with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), has raised eyebrows. This move suggests a potential shift in the AU's policy of zero tolerance towards coups.
Guinea's Path: Following Gabon's Lead?
Guinea's coup leader and interim president, Mamady Doumbouya, appears set to emulate Gabon's path as the country prepares for elections. The PSC is likely to discuss providing technical and financial support for credible elections and emphasize the importance of inclusivity. However, with Doumbouya entering the presidential race, reneging on his earlier pledge, the PSC's approach could mirror that of Gabon, unless the regional body, ECOWAS, intervenes.
Sudan's Suspension and the Quest for Stability
Sudan's representative may bring up the issue of lifting the country's suspension, citing the appointment of a civilian Prime Minister. While the AU Commission welcomed this step as inclusive governance, the appointment did not result from national dialogue. The deteriorating security situation and lack of an inclusive political process make discussions around lifting sanctions premature. Recent AU Council precedents suggest sanctions can be lifted if a country organizes a national dialogue and elections, even if coup leaders participate.
Madagascar's Military Takeover and the AU's Response
The military takeover in Madagascar is expected to be a key topic. In October 2025, a faction of the Madagascar Armed Forces led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina seized power, prompting the AU to suspend Madagascar's membership. The PSC has condemned the coup and called for inclusive dialogue and a peaceful resolution. In its recent session, the Council emphasized the need for coordinated AU-SADC efforts and support for mediation and reconciliation.
Stalled Progress in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger
Relations between these countries and the regional bloc ECOWAS remain strained. The security situation has become a pretext for the lack of focused progress in the transition process. In Mali and Burkina Faso, transition periods have been extended, and in Niger, the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) will remain in power for five years without a clear timeline for elections.
Addressing the Threat of Terrorism
While the focus of the session may be on the transition process, it is deeply intertwined with the threat of terrorism. The AU and ECOWAS must integrate the quest for constitutional order into a broader stabilization strategy backed by a security mechanism to address the existential threat these countries face. Recent developments in Mali, with the capital under threat and supply routes cut off, highlight the urgency of this issue.
Enhancing Counterterrorism Efforts
The PSC is expected to discuss its recent diplomatic engagement with Sahelian countries and explore ways to enhance coordination. The appointment of Special Envoys and representatives, along with the proposed summit in Luanda, demonstrates the AU's commitment to Sahel stability and counterterrorism. The informal consultation could provide an opportunity to discuss advancing these initiatives and addressing insecurity in West Africa.
The Widening Pattern of Governance Instability
The recent coup in Guinea-Bissau and the attempted coup in Benin underscore the growing threat of unconstitutional changes of government. The consultation is expected to consider the situation in Guinea-Bissau following the November coup, which unfolded just before the release of presidential runoff results. The AU's response, including the suspension of Guinea-Bissau from AU activities, aims to restore constitutional order.
Sudan's Conflict and the Need for Action
Sudan's representative will likely update the PSC on the recent conflict developments, including the fall of El-Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and reports of attacks on civilians. The PSC has strongly condemned these criminal activities and requested regular monitoring and reporting of heinous crimes in Sudan. Tomorrow's consultation could consider ways to facilitate the implementation of these tasks.
A Complex Path Forward
As with previous consultations, tomorrow's engagement is not expected to result in an outcome document. However, it provides an opportunity for the PSC to discuss and address the complex issues facing these countries in transition, especially the role of the AU and ECOWAS in countering terrorism and promoting stability.
And this is the part most people miss: the AU's approach to these transitions will shape the future of democracy and security in Africa. Will they succeed in navigating these challenges?
